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US dollar Index-
The US dollar index traded flat despite the soft US PCE. It hit a low of 104.36 and is currently trading around 104.597.
US Core PCE cooled in Apr and came at 0.20% below estimate. US Q1 GDP in the first quarter came in at 1.3% below forecast of 1.6%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 3000 to 219000 for the week ended May 25th vs. Estimate of 218000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June decreased to 99.9% from 99.10% a week ago.
Major resistance- 105/106.50
Major support- 104/103
Economic data for the day
June 3rd 2024, US ISM manufacturing PMI (2 pm GMT)
Jun 5th 2024, US ADP employment change (12:15 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI (2 pm GMT)
Jun 7th 2024, US NFP (12:30 PM GMT)
EURUSD-
EURUSD is consolidating ahead of ECB monetary policy. It hit a low of 1.08113 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.08204.
Markets anticipate to cut three main lending rates by 25 bpbs. Any dovish rate cut will drag the Euro further down.
Major Economic data for the week
ECB Main refinancing rate (12:15 pm GMT)
Major resistance-1.0900,1.1000
Major support- 1.0780,1.0700
Yen-
The yen lost its shine after dovish comments from minister Shindo. Any break above 158 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 158,160
Major support- 156,154.50
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar gained momentum after weak GDP data. It grew at an annualized rate of 1.7%, compared with the forecast of 2.2%. Any break below 1.3600 confirms further bearishness.
Resistance- 1.3660,1.3735
Major support- 1.3600,1.3535
