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US dollar Index-
The US dollar index gained sharply after upbeat US Non Farm Payroll data.It hit a low of 104.04 yesterday and is currently trading around 104.10..
US economy added 272000 jobs in May, above the forecast of 182000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% from 3.9%. Average wages rose to 4.1% Yoy vs 3.9% YoY. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracts in May, while the services PMI gained above 50.
Markets anticipate a hawkish Fed rate pause due to strong US inflation and mixed US economic data.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in June decreased to 98.4% from 98.90% a week ago.
Major US economic data for the week
June 12th, CPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Federal funds rate (6 pm GMT)
June 13th 2024, US PPI (12:30 pm GMT)
Major resistance- 105/106.50
Major support- 104/103
EURUSD-
EURUSD lost its shine last week after ECB monetary policy. It hit a low of 1.07664 and is currently trading around 1.07722.
ECB cuts rates by 25 bpbs to 3.75% for the first time since 2019. "The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction," the ECB said in a statement. The policy divergence between US Fed and ECB puts pressure on pair at higher levels.
Major resistance-1.0835,1.0900
Major support- 1.0760,1.0650
Yen-
The yen lost its momentum after strong upbeat US jobs data. Any break above 158 confirms further bullishness.
Major Resistance- 158,160
Major support- 156,154.50
Canadian Dollar
The pair trades above 1.3750 despite strong Canadian jobs data. The Canadian economy has added 26700 jobs in May above forecast of 248000. Any break above 1.3770 confirms further bullishness.
Resistance- 1.3800,1.3900
Major support- 1.3600,1.3535
