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- RBNZ decision this week is the major risk event for the pair. NZ economic data which has been better than expected has been weakened the case for an April OCR cut.
- However, there is a 30% chance the RBNZ decides not to wait for the next MPS and cuts this week instead. As long as the guidance allows for further easing, the NZD should fall sharply in response.
- Data releases next week include the trade balance (Wed), building permits (Fri), and business confidence (ANZ, Fri).
- In UK, CBI industrial trends survey for April due today will provide an update on UK’s manufacturing outlook.
- GBP/NZD has been trading a falling wedge pattern and has broken above strong wedge top resistance at 2.0780.
- Daily Techs are biased higher, Ichi cloud currently spanning 2.1253 to 2.1547 caps upside in the pair.
- On the otherside, breaks below 2.0730 could drag the pair lower, test of next support at 2.0680 then 2.0560 likely.
Recommendation: Good to buy dips around 2.0950/60, SL: 2.0850, TP: 2.1100/2.1150/2.12
