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Ichimoku Analysis (4-Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1793.98
Kijun-Sen- $1799.17
Gold trades weak despite the weak US dollar. European central bank hiked rates by 50 bpbs in line with expectations. Eurosystem staff projections have projected inflation to reach 8.4% in 2022 before decreasing to 6.3% in 2023. ECB President Lagarde said that "significant" further rate hikes to come.US dollar index paired some of its gains from a minor top of 104.87. The yellow metal hits a low of $1773.50 and is currently trading around $1778.77.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor resistance around 105/105.80. The near-term support is at 103.50.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb 2023 rose to 73% from 43.90% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades weak and declined from a top of 3.63% made after the Fed's hawkish rate hike. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -77 basis points from -63.5% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index – Bearish (Positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1760, a break below targets of $1740$1720/$1700. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1820, breach above will take it to the next level of $1860/$1900.
It is good to buy on dips around $1780 with SL around $1760 for TP of $1860.
