Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1858.67
Kijun-Sen- $1870.36
Gold is trading weak despite the US dollar's weakness. Markets eye US CPI data for further direction. The annual CPI is expected to decline to 6.2%. Any drop in US inflation will drag the US dollar lower. It hits a low of $1850.53 and is currently trading around $1858.19.
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.50/100.80. The near-term resistance is 104/105.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Feb declined to 90.8% from 96.70% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains ahead of US CPI data. Any break above 3.78% confirms minor bullishness. The yield spread between 10 and 2-year widened to -81.8 basis points from -46 bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index –Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1850, a break below targets of $1828/$1800. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1880, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1900/$1925/$1950.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1875 with SL around $1900 for TP of $1800.
