Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2014.82
Kijun-Sen- $2024.62
Gold prices consolidating in a narrow range between $2022 and $2001 for the past two days. The standoff in US debt ceiling negotiations supporting the yellow metal at lower levels. Markets eye US debt limit extension talks between the white house and Congress. It hits an intraday high of $2022.15 and is currently trading around $2016.36.
The US empire state manufacturing index fell 42.6 points to negative 31.80 numbers.
Major economic data for the day
May 16th, 2023, US retail sales (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 102.30/101.50. The near-term resistance is 102.80/103.40.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in June increased to 21.90% from 15.5% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trading in a narrow range ahead of US retail sales. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -50.5% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Mixed (neutral for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1955/$1935.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2040, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to buy on dips around $1970 with SL around $1950 for TP of $2070/$2100.
