FxWirePro- Gold Daily Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1953.98

Kijun-Sen- $1947.18

Gold prices hold above $1960 despite the strong Empire State manufacturing index. It hits a low of $1945 and currently trading around $1960.98.

The US Empire State manufacturing index improved to 1.1 in July, compared to -3.5 the previous month.

Major economic data for the day

Jul 18th, 2023, Core Retail sales m/m (12:30 pm GMT)

 US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 99.50/98. The near-term resistance is 101/102.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 97.30% from 93% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield declined more than 8% in hopes of a rate pause by the Fed. The  US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -92.40% from -110%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bearish (Positive for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1950, a break below targets of $1945/1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000.

 It is good to buy on dips around $1950 with SL around $1940 for TP of $1990/$2000.