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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1931.68
Kijun-Sen- $1938.64
Gold declined more than $10 yesterday on the strong US dollar. It has a low of $1924.27 and is currently trading around $1926.88.
Oil prices surged to 10- months as Saudi and Russia extended supply cuts. The jump of more than $3 in WTI crude oil yesterday will increase inflation worries and expectations of the central bank to hike rates remain high.
Major economic data for the week
Sep 6th, 2023, BOC rate statement (2:00 pm GMT)
US ISM services PMI
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 103/102. The near-term resistance is 105/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 93% from 86% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a nice gap up in hopes of a further rate hike by the fed. Trades are flat due to the US labor market holiday. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -69% from -86.4%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- mixed (neutral for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1924, a break below targets of$1911/$1900. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1950 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1970/$2000.
It is good to buy on dips around $1923-24 with SL around $1911 for TP of $1970/$2000.
