Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1917.19
Kijun-Sen- $1923.07
Gold lost its shine ahead of US inflation data. It hit a low of $1907 and is currently trading around $1911.94.
Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.6% y/y vs. 3.2% in July. Core and headline CPI are seen at 0.60% and 0.20% m/m.
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 104.40/103.79. The near-term resistance is 105/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 93% from 92% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat ahead of the US CPI. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -74% from -57%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- mixed (neutral for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1900, a break below targets of $1880/$1870/$1850. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1930/$1950/.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1920-21 with SL around $1931 for TP of $1880/$1860.
