Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2447
Kijun-Sen- $2442
Gold pared some of its gains yesterday after upbeat US retail sales. It hit a low of $2332 yesterday and is currently trading around $2457.38.
US retail sales surged sharply to 1% biggest increase in the past 1-1/2 years, compared to a forecast of 0.30%. Automobile sales mainly led the jump.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined by 7000 to 22700 for the week ended Aug 10 vs. Estimate of 235000.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Sep increased to 72.50% from 64% a day ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 102/100.60 The near-term resistance is 103.60/104.80.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2450, a break below the target of $2430/$2400. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2480 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2508/$2554.
It is good to buy on dips around $2415-16 with an SL of around $2400 for a TP of $2500.
