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Gold prices recovered as PCE cools. It hits a high of $2629.13 at the time of writing and currently trading around $2628.
On December 20, 2024, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November showed a 2.8% increase from the previous year, matching expectations but slightly down from earlier months. The monthly change was a small rise of 0.1% from October to November, indicating low inflation pressure. Although the annual inflation rate is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, it is lower than the 2.9% analysts predicted. This report follows the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. The data is important as it helps guide the Fed's decisions on future interest rate adjustments based on inflation trends
Market Expectations for Future Rate Decisions
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate pause by the Federal Reserve in January has decreased to 89.30% from 78.30% a day ago, signaling changing market expectations.
Technical Analysis of Gold Prices
From a technical standpoint, gold prices are currently below both short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. Immediate support is at $2,570 with potential declines to $2,559, $2,536, and $2,500. Resistance is set at $2,630; breaking this level could lead to prices rising towards 2,660/2,660/2,685/$2,700/$2,730, $2,750, $2,775, and $2,800.
Trading Strategy Recommendation
A suggested trading strategy is to buy on dips between $2,600, maintain a stop-loss at $2,570, and aim for a target price of $2,725.
