Ichimoku Analysis (weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1882.26
Kijun-Sen- $1787.50
Gold prices recovered more than $20 as the US treasury yield retreated. Gold hits a high of $1857 and is currently trading around $1855.58.
The US manufacturing PMI jumped to 47.70 last month from 47.4 in Jan, below the estimate of 48. While ISM manufacturing prices rose to 51 from a forecast of 45.
US ISM services PMI surged for a second consecutive month to 55.1in Feb, well above the estimate of 54.50
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits fell by 2000 to 190000 the previous week, compared to a forecast of 195000.
Major economic data this week
Mar 8th US ADP employment
Mar 10th US NFP payroll
Central bank meeting -
Fed Chairman Powell testimony (Mar 7th, 2023)
SNB Chairman Jordan Speech (Mar 8th, 2023)
BOC Monetary policy (Mar 8th, 2023)
BOJ Monetary policy (Mar 10th, 2023)
US dollar index-Bullish. Minor support around 104.35/103.70. The near-term resistance is 105.35/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Mar increased to 75.30% from 71.60% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield pared most of its gains after hitting a multi month high. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -90 basis points from -77% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (Negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1820, a break below targets of $1800/ $1788/$1748. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1847, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1860/$1888/$1900.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1858-60 with SL around $1867 for TP of $1800.
