FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1936.21

Kijun-Sen- $1945.30

Gold trades higher on mixed US jobs data. It hit a high of  $1946.15  and is currently trading around  $1944.67.

The US economy has added 187000 in August, compared to a forecast of 170000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% vs. the forecast of 3.6%. US core PCE rose to 4.2% at an annualized rate of 4.2%, compared to a forecast of 4.1%.On a monthly basis, the core PCE index came in line with the estimate. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits declined by 4000 in the week ending Aug 26th vs. an estimate of 232000. US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in August vs. 47 expected.

Sep 6th, 2023, BOC rate statement (2:00 pm GMT)

                            US ISM services PMI

Sep 5th, 2023,  RBA cash rate (4:30 am GMT)

Sep 7th, 2023, Unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)

Sep 8th, 2023, Canadian employment change (12:30 pm GMT)

US dollar index-   neutral. Minor support around 103/102. The near-term resistance is 105/106.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 93% from 80% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield recovered slightly despite mixed US NFP data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -50% from -86.4%.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Neutral (Mixed for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1933, a break below targets of $1920/$1900. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1950 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1970/$2000.

 It is good to buy on dips around $1932-33 with SL around $1920 for TP of $1970/$2000.