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Gold is trading weak for past 2 week after hitting high of $1346.67 on US dollar strength and gaining US bond yield. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: Slightly bullish. DXY has shown a recovery of more than 50 pips yesterday on broad based US dollar The index is facing strong resistance 96.80 (61.8% fib) and any break above confirms further bullishness. (negative for for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY has regained more than 140 pips from low of 110.35.It is currently trading around 111.68. The near term resistance is around 112 and any break above targets 112.60. negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield has declined nearly 2% slightly after recovering till 2.77%.The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.725%.slightly negative for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.545%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 18bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1294 ( and break above will take the gold to next level till $1334/$1346/$1350.The yellow metal should break above $1365 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1311(23.6% fib) and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1300. Any break below $1300 confirms minor weakness.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1319-20 with SL around $1327 for the TP of $1300.
