FxWirePro: Hedge EUR/USD and US equities via vanilla calls as US congress passes tax bill

The US Congress finally passed the tax reform bill, which provides significant tax cuts including a reduction in the headline corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%. President Trump will now sign it into law, although reports suggest he may do so in the New Year. Asian equities were mixed overnight, with news of the US tax overhaul seemingly already priced in.

Buy NDX Call 6-month 102.5% keeping contingent on EURUSD above 1.235 for 0.85% – 77% discount to vanilla (3.7% for a 6-month 45 Delta call) (Spot references: NDX 6472, EURUSD 1.1860). 

It is expected that EURUSD to gradually spike and approach the 1.23 level by the mid-year point. Tech would be the sector with the highest exposure to international revenue, so a weaker dollar would be a tailwind.

Moreover, the powerful worldwide tech cycle may not be dead yet and NASDAQ could surprise more on the upside. The historically low level of volatility makes call premia cheap and the negative correlation between NDX and EURUSD dramatically enhances that cheapness. The recent leg down in the index is an interesting entry point into the trade.