With limited room for Euro appreciation and the near certainty of a vol slump in the event of a Macron victory, long delta/short vega strategies such as EUR call flies appeal, and are well-priced in EURUSD and EURCAD.
Higher leverage expressions of Euro strength are [EUR/CCY higher, USD/CCY lower] and [EUR/USD higher, EuroStoxx higher] dual digitals.
EUR-crosses have historically displayed widely varying sensitivities to crash risk in the Euro, with EURHUF, EURPLN, EURAUD and EURNZD all tending to rally during Euro-stress, and EURJPY, EURGBP and EUR/Asia selling off sharply.
Consider buying zero-cost combinations of low delta EUR puts in the latter camp funded with EUR puts in the former as conditional expressions of EUR crash risk.
Deep value is beginning to emerge in long-end (5Y) USD/CHF vol. A steeply inverted forward curve and cheap risk-reversals make OTM USD calls especially appealing. Long/short pairs of USD calls/CHF puts funded with EUR calls/CHF puts are priced at multiyear lows and offer franc view-neutral positive carry.


Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift?
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts




