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As you could look at USDCAD daily plotting of technical chart, a flurry of bearish patterns is popping-up at the stiff resistance levels. Shooting stars have occurred at 1.2966 and 1.2984 levels, Gravestone Doji at 1.2952 and Hanging Man at 1.2942 levels, these bearish patterns are coupled with bearish RSI divergence indicate lingering selling sentiments, that means the strength in CAD.
What is driving the loonie? Is it the crude price or is it NAFTA, if you make out from the recent trading session that has run us through the fate of the Canadian currency considerably relies on the relations with the US. Concerns that in future the US will focus on bilateral talks rather than the joint NAFTA negotiations caused heavy losses in CAD and MXN yesterday.
Contrary to MXN, however, CAD was able to retrace its losses again after it became known that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin asked Donald Trump to exempt Canada from the tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium. The high sensitivity is also likely to be due to the fact that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is keeping a close eye on the trade conflict.
For now, the market is expecting a rate hike in July. But this is by no means a fait accompli. After all the BoC disappointed rate hike expectations once before due to NAFTA uncertainties. The development on the trade front as part of the G7 summit to be held in Quebec as of Friday could, therefore, be decisive for future CAD levels.
The USDCAD put RKO was originally conceived as a low-cost option to gain exposure to what seemed like a decent chance of a near-term breakthrough in NAFTA negotiations. Now what seems most likely is that the option will expire worthless, particularly after the latest developments this week in US Trade policy which seemingly swung the tone of NAFTA negotiations back to an antagonistic one where Trump has once again publically hinted about the possibility of pulling out. Buy a 2m 1.25 USDCAD put, RKO 1.22 for 14bp on April 13th. Marked at +1bp.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly CAD spot index is inching towards -93 levels (bearish), while hourly USD spot index was at 107 (bullish) while articulating at 13:18 GMT. For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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