FxWirePro: NZD/JPY hammer occurs exactly at sloping channel support to propel rallies, consolidation phase in major trend restrained below 38.2% fibos

China earlier today showed a sharp rise in trade surplus in March. 

On the back of this Chinese data, bulls of NZDJPY have managed to test the channel support at 75.626 levels (4H charts).

As a result, hammer pattern candle has occurred to signal bullish sentiments.

Bulls testing channel support with hammer pattern along with healthy bullish momentum & MACD crossover indicates the rallies are most likely upto either 21SMA or next stiff channel resistance.

You could very well observe price behavior that has been sliding through this sloping channel.

On a broader perspective, gravestone doji on monthly plotting evidences 4 and a half month lows and well EMAs, more slumps likely as the previous consolidation phase in the major trend doesn’t seem to retrace maximum 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. No traces of significant bullish sentiments on this timeframe.

Current prices have gone above 7SMA after testing channel supports is noticeable and rallies are backed by momentum indicators seems most likely upto at 76.5868 (i.e.21SMA) or maximum 78.520 (i.e. 38.2% Fibonacci retracements from the lows of 69.218 levels) (refer monthly plotting).

For now, NZDJPY price, volumes and leading indicators moving in tandem with bull swings which seem to be momentary.

Whereas both leading & lagging indicator to substantiate this bearish stance on monthly terms.

RSI converges to the ongoing price declines as this leading oscillator trending below 42 levels and 49 on monthly terms, thereby, it signals weakness in the major trend.

Selling momentum in both medium and long term trends are convincingly signaled by the stochastic oscillator, bearish bias as it evidences %D crossover right from the overbought zone on monthly term signifies that the consolidation phase has lost momentum absolutely.

Hence, we recommend snapping the rallies are the best opportunities to deploy shorts on hedging grounds, and decide to initiate shorts in futures contracts either with mid-month or far-month tenors.