Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
J.P. Morgan Now Expects Two ECB Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Pressures 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
Paraguay Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% Amid Slowing Growth 
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
God on their side: how the US, Israel and Iran are all using religion to garner support 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Meta and Google just lost a landmark social media addiction case. A tech law expert explains the fallout 
The Polish central bank held its rate decision today: no change in monetary policy was the consensus.
The National Bank of Poland announced its reference rate at a record low of 1.5 pct on October 4th, 2017, as widely expected. Also, the Lombard rate and the deposit rate were kept unchanged at 2.5 pct and 0.5 pct, respectively, and the rediscount rate was left at 1.75 pct. The central bank ended an easing cycle in March 2015.
But, what about language on inflation risks? The flash CPI estimate for September displayed a strong reading of 2.2% YoY. It is possible that all the acceleration came from seasonally volatile categories, and that core inflation rose only by 0.1pp or stayed flat, the data breakdown will be available in two weeks.
The MPC has noted in past statements that there is no price pressure in the economy despite strong fundamental developments – we should watch the language on this topic very carefully today.
We still expect the MPC balance to remain in favour of doves through 2018, but this is going to be an evolving situation. If NBP were to sound less dovish today in response to the latest inflation and wage readings, we should expect downward pressure on EURPLN in the coming months.
Thus, we were already short in EURPLN spot, we recommend shorting EURPLN spot, which is trading at 4.2990. The position generates carry of about +15bp per month. We target a 3.75% move lower to 4.1485 and place a stop-loss at 4.32 levels.
Options Trading Tips:
At spot ref: 4.2990, we advocate entering a new EURPLN 1m2m diagonal call spread (4.2625/4.3325). The underlying spot FX trend and IVs are favorable to write ITM calls
