Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
FxWirePro- Major Crypto levels and bias summary 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows are picking up. As such, we add to our bearish stance and move underweight TRY, leaving us underweight in EMEA EM FX overall.
We encourage UW in the JPM’s GBI-EM Model Portfolio with an UW in ZAR and TRY vs. OW in RUB, and OW in PLN and CZK hedged against UW in RON. We also buy a 2m 4.10 USDTRY call option in outright trades.
Outright trades:
08-Jan-18 USDTRY call (4.10), spot reference: 3.8856
Short ZAR vs basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD)
Short EURCZK spot reference: 25.55
Long ILS vs. basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD) spot reference: 4.1460 (EURILS), 3.5101 (USDILS)
01-Mar-18 EURHUF downside seagull (Long put spread (304, 297), short call (312)), spot reference: 311.720.
