Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows are picking up. As such, we add to our bearish stance and move underweight TRY, leaving us underweight in EMEA EM FX overall.
We encourage UW in the JPM’s GBI-EM Model Portfolio with an UW in ZAR and TRY vs. OW in RUB, and OW in PLN and CZK hedged against UW in RON. We also buy a 2m 4.10 USDTRY call option in outright trades.
Outright trades:
08-Jan-18 USDTRY call (4.10), spot reference: 3.8856
Short ZAR vs basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD)
Short EURCZK spot reference: 25.55
Long ILS vs. basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD) spot reference: 4.1460 (EURILS), 3.5101 (USDILS)
01-Mar-18 EURHUF downside seagull (Long put spread (304, 297), short call (312)), spot reference: 311.720.
