2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Gold's 365-Day EMA Streak Since Oct 2023 Faces Its First Real Test at $3,980 — Break or Bounce to $4,140? 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does that leave Benjamin Netanyahu? 
J.P. Morgan Sees Potential Vestas Guidance Upgrade Amid Strong Wind Energy Demand 
Sell the Bounce": Gold Rally Stalls Near $4165 as Fed Hawks Slam the Door on Rate Cuts — Targets $4000/$3600 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
In this edition, we emphasize the potential trading opportunities in a few EMFX baskets related to anomalies or dislocations. These include:
1) TWD too strong versus rate differentials, it is highly expensive versus rate differentials (6% overvalued using data since 2013); fair value around 33.30. Also, geopolitical risks are underpriced in our opinion.
2) CNH 1y implied vol rich compared to realized vols.
3) CNH trading at the premium to CNY, Zero cost/negligible premium options structure for trading and seagull for hedging as CNH IVs still appear exorbitant.
4) MXN and MYR cheap versus oil but RUB and BRL near fair value.
5) KRW and MXN risk reversals cheap versus implieds.
6) The positive carry from buying USDHKD forwards below the convertibility range, buying USD-HKD forward outright below the bottom of the convertibility range (7.75-7.85) is appealing if the position is held to maturity (basis risk could cause significant interim mark-to-market gains/losses).
7) There could be a potential breakdown in correlation between KRW and KOSPI due to growth in global equity basket but on the hedging grounds stay long in USDKRW via NDFs. We remain biased toward buying USDKRW but an upward move in global equities that pushes KOSPI higher is a serious risk to our thesis.
