2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Bank of Korea Holds Interest Rates Steady as Weak Won Limits Policy Flexibility 
Austria’s AA Credit Rating Affirmed as Fitch Highlights Stable Outlook 
Bitcoin Reserves Hit 5-Year Low as $2.15B Exits Exchanges – Bulls Quietly Loading the Spring Below $100K 
BOJ Governor Ueda Highlights Uncertainty Over Future Interest Rate Hikes 
Airline Loyalty Programs Face New Uncertainty as Visa–Mastercard Fee Settlement Evolves 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
EUR/USD Smashes 1.1660 as ADP Jobs Massacre Crushes the Dollar 
Fed Officials Split as Powell Weighs December Interest Rate Cut 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
As the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained status quo at its monetary policy meeting yesterday (funds rate at 1.00%) due to pauses to parse more economic data but may hint it is on track for an increase in June, bullion’s both spot and OTC markets have been highly active today.
Turning to silver more specifically, investor demand on the COMEX has primarily driven silver prices higher so far in 2017 with ETF demand and physical investment appearing lethargic from the 1Q data we have.
OTC updates:
Prices in bullion markets have tumbled, gold declined from the highs of $1,295 and silver from the peaks of $18.647 to the current $1,234 and $16.434 levels respectively.
While hedging interests for downside risks are mounting as you could easily make out from the negative risk reversal numbers along with the corresponding noticeable spike in IVs of 1-3m tenors.
The implied volatilities of XAUUSD (gold) ATM contracts are spiking shy 10.5% and 11.41% of 1m and 3m tenors respectively, while above 18.5% and 19.25% for XAGUSD (silver) ATM contracts of 1m and 3m tenors respectively, while the spot price in technical trend approaching near crucial juncture, falling below 7 & 21 DMAs with bearish crossover (refer above technical chart), but it seems the major trend has been in consolidation phase we foresee equal opportunity for both bulls and bears with option writers of deep OTM calls are on slight upper hand.
Hedging Framework:
3-Way Options straddle versus OTM call
Spread ratio: (Long 1: Long 1: Short 1)
How to execute:
At spot reference: 16.474 an ounce, initiate long in XAGUSD 2M at the money +0.51 delta call, go long 2M at the money -0.49 delta put and simultaneously, short 2w (1%) out of the money call with positive theta.
