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RUB: How nervous the currency market is about sanctions could be seen yesterday in the development of the ruble. After a proposal for a Senate bill for further sanctions against Russia reached the public, the RUB lost over 2%. It did not matter that it was merely a draft that (although brought in by democrats and republicans alike) will have little chance of implementation.
Nevertheless, the behaviour of the market is not irrational. If the sanctions contained in the draft were actually to take effect, Russian banks would probably find access to international markets extremely difficult.
European banks would then also no longer be able to do business with their Russian partners without having to fear sanctions from the US. The market priced in such a considerable risk yesterday, even if the probability for this is quite low. The RUB is unlikely to change its trend in near-terms as the market sentiment eyes on the announcement of sanctions due to a poison gas attack on a Russian double agent.
Trade tips: 06-Sep-18 USDRUB 1x1 call spread (69.500/64.350), marked 0.92% - spot reference: 66.130 levels.
ZAR: The economic indicators continue to pose risks for the feeble South African economy. Following a drop of the overall economic output, the data available so far at the best points towards a moderate rise in Q2. June manufacturing production turned out weaker than anticipated and the strong rise of the previous month was revised to the downside. Amongst the leading indicators the PMI has risen slightly, thus returning into expansionary territory once again, but a glance at the sub- components illustrates that the expected business conditions have deteriorated further.
Also, yesterday’s rise in business confidence is positive but it remains well below the annual high at the start of the year when the change in government fuelled hopes in an economic recovery. The data did not provide any significant momentum for the rand. USDZAR moved sideways over the past few weeks in a range of approx. 13.10 to 13.55.
Trade tips: 06-Dec-18 USDZAR OTM call (14.50), spot reference levels: 13.5420 levels. Courtesy: Commerzbank
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards -57 levels (which is bearish), while articulating (at 13:37 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
