FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
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After reaching a peak around 113.2 area, the USD/JPY exchange rate declined over speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might signal a reversal of its ultra-loose monetary policy at its monetary policy meeting next week.
The exchange rate has now declined to 111 area and now testing a former resistance line, which has been acting as a support to the exchange rate as can be seen in the above chart.
Our calculations suggest that if the monetary policies continue to diverge, meaning that the BoJ maintains its dovish stance, while the U.S. Federal Reserve moves forward with further rate hikes, the USD/JPY exchange rate could weaken to as low as 120 area. However, that calculation will be in jeopardy if BoJ signals a reversal.
The fate of the yen is clearly either in the hands of BoJ, which might reverse its policy or in the hands of the dollar, which is gaining in strength amid rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
