FxWirePro: USD/TRY technicals coupled with fundamentals - Shooting star puzzles rallies

The USDTRY has actually entered a new zone of bullish set up after military conflict between Turkey and Russia.

About the President Erdogan's ignorance of ex-head of economic policy added some pressure on foreign investments, Mr Ali Babacan (who held high credibility among foreign investors for his 'balanced' and centrist stance).

As a result of above political and defensive noise, we've observed that Turkish lira is going to be under deep pressure overturning recent rallies.

Since September-2015, we've been firmly bullish that is articulated in our every post about USD/TRY. The driving force was majorly due to the technical structure of the monthly USD/TRY charting pattern though, where it wasn't coupled with the fundamental composition.

On a daily time frame, we spotted out the formation back to back shooting star patterns.

Highs of 2.92 were rejected at this juncture where it has acted as resistance at the same levels.

Any minor abrupt price drops would not be surprised and misinterpreted as downtrend.

RSI shows divergence to recent upswings but certainly not an accurate selling call.

Stochastic boils down some small price correction in short term.

Despite this bearish pattern bulls ignore to continue their business, hence, this reignites us going along with the fundamental assumptions of technical analysis (don't study technical indicators or pattern in isolation).

Current prices are way beyond 10 DMA that signifies uptrend in medium term remains intact.

For now, 2.9525 is the upside bracket and 2.9050 is what we could in maximum downside drag, but we could still foresee USDTRY at around 3.20 by mid-2016.