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Intraday bias - Bullish
USDCAD is consolidating in a narrow range between 1.36650 and 1.35330 for the past five days. The pair was one of the best performers in past two weeks on weak Canada CPI and upbeat US economic data. The policy divergence between US Fed and BOC also puts supports pair at lower levels. It hits a low of 1.35837 a the time of writing and is currently trading around 1.36004.
US ISM services PMI surged for a second consecutive month to 55.1in Feb, well above the estimate of 54.50. Canadian building permits fell by -4% in Feb vs. the +1.5% expected.
Major economic data today
Canada Ivey PMI
US factory orders
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in Mar increased to 75.30% from 71.60% a day ago.
Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding below the short-term( 21- EMA), above 55 EMA, and the long-term moving average of 1.34889 (200- EMA). Any violation below 1.3550 confirms intraday bearishness. A dip to 1.3470/1.3435 is possible.
WTI crude oil gained more than $4 on China demand hopes. Any daily close above $80 confirms minor bullishness.
The near-term resistance is around 1.36650 and any breach above targets is 1.37250/1.3800.
Indicators (4-Hour chart)
CCI (50)- Bullish
ADX- Neutral
It is good to buy on dips around 1.3570 with SL around 1.3500 for a TP of 1.37250.
