FxWirePro- USDCHF Daily Outlook

USDCHF was one of the best performers this week. The pair surged more than 200 pips on the Swiss franc's weakness. The policy divergence between SNB and other major central banks put pressure on the Swiss franc. The chance of further rate hikes has increased after upbeat US Non-farm payroll and retail sales. It hits an intraday high of 0.93648 and is currently trading around 0.93550.

Major economic data:

US Core PCE index

New home sales

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar jumped to 28% from 15.1% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield lost its shine after less than forecast US GDP data. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -81 basis points from -73% bpbs.

Technically in the 4-hour chart, the pair is holding above short-term (21  and 55 EMA) and above long-term 200 EMA (0.92531). Any break below 0.9300 confirms intraday bearishness, a dip to 0.9270/0.9220/0.9160/0.9130 is possible.

 The near-term resistance is around 0.9360 and any breach above targets is 0.9400/0.9435/0.9500. Significant bullish continuation only if it breaks 0.9600.  

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

ADX- Bullish

It is good to buy on dips around 0.9308-10 with SL around 0.9270 for the TP of 0.9400.