FxWirePro- USDCHF Daily Outlook

USDCHF pared some of its gains made yesterday. The pair was one of the worst performers in the past one and a half month and lost more than 400 pips on the weak US dollar. The Swiss National Bank increased rates from negative -0.25 in June to 1.50% in Mar 2023. It hits a low of 0.90056 and is currently trading around 0.90427.

 According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in May increased to 70.5% from 57.2% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield showed a minor pullback ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -57.3% from -108%.

Technically in the 4-hour chart, the pair is holding below short-term (21  and 55 EMA) and above long-term 200 EMA (0.92531). Any break below 0.9000 confirms intraday bearishness, a dip to 0.8925/0.8870 is possible.

 The near-term resistance is around 0.9070 and any breach above targets is 0.9130/0.9180. Significant bullish continuation only if it breaks 0.9600.  

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bearish

ADX- Bearish

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.9068-70 with SL around 0.9130 for the TP of 0.8925.