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The immediate prospects for the USD rally to extend have ebbed with Powell in the Fed chair, the House tax bill not challenging the modest baseline we have for fiscal stimulus, and wage growth backsliding. But we're not too worried about the broad dollar rolling over given the constructive environment for US growth and continue to hold USD longs vs CHF and JPY.
We retain a modest USD long against the low yielders as the momentum in US growth and growth expectations should allow the dollar to consolidate at worst pending an inflation shock that forces Treasury yields above the annual range highs at 2.50%.
Today’s resilience to what was a disappointing payrolls report, especially on the wage front, is encouraging for the dollar, as is the indifference to a Powell-led Fed.
We are still biased for another leg lower to ideal targets between 1.15 and 1.14, which should complete the phase from the 1.2090 highs. We are then looking for a broader range to develop around 1.1900, but couldn’t rule out a re-test of the 1.21-1.23 key resistance zone in that process.
The EURUSD call spread is a legacy position from before the ECB -we keep this as a portfolio level hedge to US tax reform faltering in Congress as the structure is virtually worthless and so not worth unwinding.
Bought 1.5m USDCHF risk-reversal which is still deemed to bearish (1.01/ 0.97; spot ref: 0.9984) for 24.5bp October 27. Marked at 27.3bp.
Long USDJPY from 113.75 in October end. Stop at 111.50. Marked at +0.46%.
Long a 2m 1.20-1.23 EURUSD call spread. Paid 46bp on September 29th.
