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GBP has potential to outperform EUR due to BoE’s optimism

The Bank of England (BoE) is in a similar situation. The British economy is doing well, as the GDP figures for Q3 are likely to show once again today. Only inflation is stubbornly low. However, the BoE is currently much more relaxed about that than the ECB. 

It hopes that the impact of the low oil prices will drop out of the series by the end of the year and that the strong labour market will have an effect. But what if these hopes are disappointed? A look at the GBP exchange rate is sufficient to find the culprit - at least if one follows the ECB's reasoning. 

In fact, the BoE, too, has said that sterling's appreciation since mid-2013 is one of the reasons for the current, low inflation rates. In contrast to the ECB, however, the BoE is not actively counteracting the currency uptrend. 

Instead, it still says that the next step is likely to be a rate hike, a measure which will probably result in an even firmer exchange rate.

"The biggest risk for the GBP is that the BoE might change its mind if inflation figures remain disappointing. But as long as the BoE sticks to its normalization plans, sterling is in a strong position, particularly versus the euro", says Commerzbank.

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