GBPJPY Surges Past 204: Yen Sinks as Takaichi’s Win Fuels Japan’s Political Shake-Up

On board-based Yen weakness, GBPJPY holds above the 204 level. Trading around 204.564 right now, the pair reached an intraday high of 204.70..

Sanae Takaichi's surprise win in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election on October 4, 2025, has strengthened yen weakness by dropping the currency past 150 per dollar to a two-month low against the euro, reaching an all-time low. Aligned with "Abenomics" and favoring strong fiscal stimulus over Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate increases, Takaichi has drastically lowered market expectations for near-term monetary tightening. Her victory has spurred a 4.5% increase in Japanese stocks and weakened the yen, therefore boosting carry trades but also heightening inflationary worries brought on by more import prices. The BOJ now has a challenge since Takaichi's pro-stimulus policy means ongoing strain on the yen while rate hikes might be necessary to stabilize currency fluctuations brought about by the weakening yen. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato has promised to closely watch foreign exchange markets so as to reduce large swings.

Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of GBPJPY

CMP- 204.61

EMA (4-hour chart)

55-EMA- 200.567

200-EMA- 198.92

365-EMA-  199.67. The pair trades above both the short-term and long-term moving averages.

Major Support- 203. Any breach below will drag the pair down to 201.95/201/200/199/198.

Major resistance - 205.  Any break above 205 confirms minor bullishness; a jump to  206/208 is possible.

Indicator (4-hour chart)

CCI (50)-  Bullish

Average directional movement Index-  Bullish. All indicators confirm a Bullish trend.

It is good to buy on dips around 203.78-80 around with SL around 203 for TP of 206.