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China’s planned implementation of stricter rare earth export controls could place up to $6.5 trillion in downstream production outside the country at risk, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook released on Thursday.
China, the world’s leading producer of rare earth elements, expanded its export restrictions in October last year by adding more materials to the control list and introducing new licensing requirements. Although Beijing later agreed to delay enforcement for one year, the IEA warned that full implementation could significantly disrupt global supply chains.
Rare earth elements are a group of 17 critical minerals used in a wide range of industries, including automotive manufacturing, aerospace, consumer electronics, renewable energy, and defense. While only small amounts are required in finished products, these materials are essential for modern technologies.
The IEA estimates that industries outside China relying on rare earth supplies could face severe production risks if exports become more restricted. The United States and Europe would bear nearly half of the projected economic impact due to their dependence on imported processed materials.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the findings highlight how enormous economic value depends on relatively small quantities of critical minerals supplied through highly concentrated and vulnerable supply chains. He stressed that diversifying sources remains crucial to improving long-term supply security.
The report also raised concerns over China’s planned export controls on graphite, another critical mineral widely used in electric vehicle batteries. If implemented, those restrictions could put approximately $300 billion in downstream production outside China at risk. China currently accounts for more than 90% of global processed graphite output, underscoring its dominant position in the market.
In response to growing supply chain concerns, Western governments have accelerated investments in alternative critical mineral projects. The IEA said public financing commitments for new mining and processing initiatives surged more than fourfold between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion.
The agency added that new rare earth refining facilities in the United States and Malaysia helped reduce China’s global refining market share to 85% last year from 90% in 2023. If planned projects move forward as expected, China’s share could decline further to around 70% by 2035, strengthening supply chain resilience worldwide.
