The German bunds traded modestly firmer Friday after recent economic data showed that the country’s trade surplus narrowed in October. Also, the European Central Bank announced yesterday that it will reduce the pace of monthly bond buying to 60 billion Euros from previous 80 billion, limited the fall in bond yields.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1-1/2 basis points to 0.36 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year bond dipped 1 basis point to -0.74 percent by 09:00 GMT.
Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in October to 20.5 billion Euros, but is smaller than the market consensus expectation of a widening to 21.5 billion Euros. This compares with a downwardly revised surplus of 21.1 billion Euros in September (previous was 21.3 billion Euros).
Moreover, the European Central Bank in its yesterday’s final monetary policy decision of 2016 reduced the pace of its monthly bond-buying to 60 billion Euros from 80 billion, but extended the programme by nine months (April-October). The central bank reiterated that quantitative easing (QE) will run until inflation's path is in line with its goal. Also, noted that it may increase the size or duration if needed.
We would describe this tapering decision as more hawkish than the expected extension of the current pace of quantitative easing by 6 months.
Lastly, markets will remain focused on the Federal Reserve last monetary policy decision for 2016, which is scheduled to be released on December 14.
The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the target range of the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent on December 14, with a unanimous decision. Little change to the statement, though the Committee is likely to acknowledge that market-based measures of inflation compensation have risen further.
Meanwhile, the German stock index DAX Index traded 0.26 percent lower at 11,150.50 by 09:00 GMT. While at 09:00 GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index remained highly bearish at -125.23 (lower than -75 represents a bearish trend).


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