Global Geopolitical Series: ‘Denmark murder plot’ accusation bad news for Iran

The timing couldn’t have been worse for Iran.

It all began back in the last week of September when a large area around Denmark's capital Copenhagen was cut off; Police closed bridges, boats, and trains to and from Zealand, Denmark's largest island, in a massive hunt for a Swedish-registered black Volvo. It was said that there was a hunt to capture three men who were reportedly involved in a serious crime. While the details of the emergency were not clear at the point, Denmark claimed last week that it has foiled a terrorist plot involving Iran on its soil in September.

Finn Borch Andersen, head of Denmark's intelligence service Politiets Efterretningstjeneste (PET) claimed that the intelligence agency believes that Iran was planning an attack on Danish soil involving ASMLA (Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz), which is a classified terrorist group in Iran. According to the intelligence chief, a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin was taking a photo of the ASMLA branch leader’s home and the black volvo was moving suspiciously around the house. When the car was approached, it sped off triggering a fear of an imminent attack.

Iran has denied that accusation and as it came out that Israel was instrumental in proving intelligence regarding the matter to the Danes, Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif accused Israel of conducting a false flag operation in order to blame Iran.

Whatever the case may be, the timing of all this wouldn’t have been worse as the United States is set to impose a harsh set of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports beginning this Sunday. So far, the EU has worked with Iran to save the nuclear agreement, which the United States exited earlier this year but that might change soon under public pressure if Iran is accused of conduct killings on European soil.

In June, France also allegedly foiled a bomb attack by Iran on its soil and in October, France seized assets belonging to Iran's intelligence services and two Iranian nationals in response to a June plot to attack an exiled Iranian opposition group's rally outside Paris.

While Iran has suggested that the U.S. sanctions would fail to curb its exports, a joint EU-U.S. pressure could once again cripple its oil industry.