Global Geopolitical Series: Key updates from across the world

Here are some key events to keep a tab on,

• Russia-U.S. - Syria: The United States has warned Damascus and Moscow that it views any military assault on Syria's last rebel-held province in coming days as an escalation of the seven-year Syrian civil war. The warning from U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on August 31 came as rebels in Syria's Idlib province bordering Turkey blew up bridges and dug trenches in preparation for an all-out government assault promised by the leaders of both Syria and Russia, which is providing air support for Syrian ground forces. It is not clear at this point, why the United States is opposed to an attack on Idlib when it allowed pro-Assad forces to retake the rest of the territories held by rebels.  After President Trump warned on Twitter against attacking Idlib, the leaders of the Astana process (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) met in Tehran for a meeting. But as the talks failed to break deadlocks, Russia has resumed heavy bombing in Idlib ignoring U.S. warnings. The latest report suggests that there has been some improvement in the negotiations as the Idlib assault is halted, thanks to Turkey.  
   
• Iraq: Iraq has denied a Reuters’ report that Iran has moved its missiles in Iraq, which puts Israel in the range of the missiles. Israel has vowed to take down any missiles operating from Iraq. Iraq has recently spoken against Iran’s bombing of Kurdish militia within Iraqi territory. The United States is reportedly losing its influence on Iraq after the last election, where pro-Iranian parties made gains. After reports that terrorists are reemerging in Iran, New Zealand announced an extended stay of its troops, which marks a U-turn from previous announcements.  
   
• Korean Peninsula: The effect of the peace prospect continues. In the latest move, a unified Korean basketball team has won a silver medal in Asiad games.  Through South Korean officials, Kim Jong Un announced his intention to denuclearize the Korean peninsula before the end of President Trump’s first term. This is likely to be discussed in greater detail in the looming inter-Korean leaders’ meet, where South Korean President Moon Jae-in invited 9 parliamentary leaders including speaker and those from the opposition parties to join him in the historic visit to Pyongyang. The inter-Korean meeting would begin on 18th September and last two days.
   
• Palestine - Israel: After intense firefighting, airstrikes and rocket fires along the Gaza border, Israel was inching closer in forging a truce agreement with Hamas over the Gaza Strip, Palestinian Authority leaders have foiled the move and the focus has now turned to solve the West Bank issue first before any truce along Gaza. As the Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders heightened the harsh rhetoric, President Trump of the United States has called of as much as $200 million aid to PA.  President Trump has also reportedly revived the confederation idea between Jordan and the West Bank, which was initially proposed by King Hussain of Jordan and Yasser Arafat, the PA President. The plan was abandoned by Jordan in 1988. Recently, Paraguay, which had said that it would follow the U.S. footsteps in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by moving its embassy, scrapped the move, angering Israel which has chosen to close its embassy in Paraguay. According to the latest reports, violence has once again struck the West Bank, as an American-Israeli activist was killed. Israel is likely to go ahead with its planned but controversial demolition of a Bedouin village.
   
• Turkey-United States: The relations have taken a turn for the worse, as President Trump has imposed sanctions against Turkey's justice and interior ministers due to the detention of an American pastor. In response to the U.S. sanctions, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan ordered the authorities to freeze assets of America’s justice and interior minister. However, it is unclear who that would affect, due to differing Cabinet roles in the United States than in Turkey, or if the U.S. officials even have any holdings in Turkey. President Trump has doubled the metal tariffs on Turkey citing sharp currency declines. And Erdogan responded by increasing tariffs on several U.S. goods including iPhone. Turkey is trying to warm up to Russia, and the European Union amid diplomatic crisis with the United States. In the latest move, defiant Turkey has announced that it would move ahead with the decision to purchase Russian made S400 missile defense systems, despite being a NATO ally to the United States and despite NATO’s opposition. Turkey is now spearheading the effort to forge a global alliance against U.S. economic attacks. However, the crisis continues in Turkey. In the latest move, Turkish President Erdogan has taken control of the country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund and its central bank sold billions of dollars’ worth of gold to improve its liquidity position.
   
• Trade war: President Trump has toughened his trade rhetoric towards China and Canada, after reaching an agreement with Mexico on NAFTA but not with Canada. He has threatened to impose tariffs on all Chinese goods worth $200 billion very soon.
   
• Saudi Arabia- Canada: Saudi Arabia has severed economic and diplomatic ties with Canada in response to Canada’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s handling and capture of an activist. Saudi Arabia ordered the expulsion of the Canadian ambassador and the halting of all new trade and investment deals between the two countries after Canada said it was gravely concerned about the recent arrests of Saudi civil society and women’s rights activists. It has also called back its diplomats from Canada. Saudi Arabia has suspended flights to Toronto as the escalation is showing no signs of abating. However, in the latest move, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week that Canada is engaging diplomatically with Saudi Arabia to resolve the dispute, however, no reports of any breakthrough yet.
   
• Cyprus crisis: New natural gas discoveries have left a divided Cyprus in the middle of a worsening geopolitical storm in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus has once again taken center stage in the geopolitical debates surrounding the Eastern Mediterranean, fueled by vivid discussions of possible new resource wars in the region, and the evolving role of Turkey. Cyprus struck gas, twice: in 2011 and in 2018. The Cyprus peace talks, led by the UN, collapsed dramatically in 2017 and left the international community in a state of pessimism regarding a possible reunification of the island. Turkey decided to play a more assertive role in the regional energy game. The negotiations are still on with no breakthrough yet. Turkey has announced that it might militarily intervene to prevent drilling in the region for Natural gas.
   
• Sweden election: Sweden in political deadlock as elections fail to deliver a decisive majority. The ruling Social Democratic Party won 101 seats in 349 members’ parliament, 12 seats less than the last election, making it the biggest party in numbers of seats won. Moderate Party came second 70 seats, 13 seats less than the last election. Sweden Democrats were the biggest winner of the night with 62 seats, 20 more than the last election. Sweden’s Centre Party won 31 seats, 9 seats more than last year. Sweden’s left won 28 seats, 7 more than the last election. Christian Democratic Party won 23 seats, which 7 more compared to the last showing. Liberals won 19 seats, same as last time, and the Green Party came last with 15 seats, 10 seats less than the last showing.  The current coalition looks like - the ruling party’s coalition has 144 seats. Moderate Party’s alliance coalition has 143 seats, which makes the Sweden Democrats the kingmaker with 62 seats. Post-election negotiations among parties are on but still no report of a breakthrough.