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The death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was in the payroll of Washington Post and a Permanent Resident of the United States, has put Washington in a difficult position but unlikely cause major damage to 86-year old Saudi-American alliance and unlikely to derail President Trump’s effort to build an Arab alliance in the Middle with Saudi Arabia as its prominent member. The idea was first conceived during President Trump’s first visit to Riyadh at the Islamic conference, where more than 50 Muslim-majority countries participated.
Mr. Khashoggi vanished on October 2nd after his visit to the Saudi consulate over divorce documents from his previous marriage, while his fiancé waited outside. According to her, he never came out. Security surveillance camera also supported her claim. However, for two weeks Saudi Arabia tried to press that Jamal Khashoggi left the consulate after 20 minutes of entering but under intense international outcry and pressure from allies, Saudi Arabia finally claimed that the journalist was killed in a fist-fight after officials asked him to return to his home country to get all the necessary papers.
At the same time, Turkey outraged by the killing on its soil claimed to have an audio tape of the killing and CCTV footages that in reality, Khashoggi was brutally murdered and the Kingdom preplanned it, which contradicted the Saudi account of an accidental killing. Finally, Saudi Arabia accepted late last month that the killing was premeditated.
President Trump described the incident as the worst plan ever, with worst execution possible and followed by the worst cover-up. So far, his administration has canceled visas of senior Saudi officials and hasn’t ruled out some form of sanctions. At the same time, both President Trump and his senior aides have highlighted the importance of the alliance for the stability in the Middle East.
President Trump’s Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) plan aims to bind Sunni-Muslim majority countries such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan in the United States led economic, political and military alliance in the Middle East to counter the influence of Iran in the region. But the fate of the alliance came under scrutiny after many Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia triggered a diplomatic and economic blockade last year against Qatar over its alleged involvement in spreading terrorism in the region and its close ties with Iran. Now, many analysts believe that the Khashoggi murder further complicates the future of the alliance.
However, with majority of the Gulf countries siding with Saudi Arabia over the murder of Mr. Khashoggi, who is described as a radical by many in these countries, and with Retired Marine General Anthony Zinni, the administration's chief MESA negotiator confirming that MESA is moving forward, we don’t believe that the murder would derail the plan.
However, a meeting is scheduled for January in the United States where Trump and the Arab leaders are expected to sign a preliminary accord on the alliance. However, the meeting definitely looks uncertain as a visit by Saudi Arabian leader such as the crown prince Muhammad bin Salman will not be politically popular given the murder of the journalist.
