Global Geopolitical Series: Russia’s Novichok poisoning increasingly looks like Iraq’s ‘weapons of mass destruction’

Back in 2003, United States led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries invaded Iraq as a part of declared war against international terrorism and its sponsors basing its rationale on the assertion that Iraqi government led by Saddam Hussain possessed ‘weapons of mass destruction’, despite repeated denial of such possession by the Iraqi government and United Nations’ assessment that there was no such weapon. It later came to light that there was no such weapon of mass destruction but by that time Saddam Hussain was killed, millions displaced from their home, thousands were dead and the very same war and its devastation later gave rise to the violent terrorist organization known as ISIS/ISIL.

The latest diplomatic fallout between the NATO countries and Russia looks increasingly similar to the above, with the only difference that there may not be a direct invasion of Russia as it has a much powerful military armed with nuclear weapons.

The latest fallout began on March 4th, when Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy who worked as a double agent for the United Kingdom until his capture in 2006 and his daughter Yulia were rushed to a hospital after they were found unconscious at a park in Salisbury. It was later reported that the father and daughter had come into contact with an obscure nerve agent. UK government officials said the Skripals were attacked by "Novichok," a powerful Soviet-era chemical nerve agent used by the military. Though the British government did not provide evidence that linked Russia to the crime but was confident from the beginning there could be no other "reasonable explanation" for the attempted assassination since the nerve agent was first manufactured in the former Soviet Union. Great Britain was so convinced of their Russia theory, they rushed in levying sanctions against the country by quickly expelling Russian diplomats from London.  Shortly afterward, UK capital officials reached out to NATO and their European allies who provided immediate support.

At the European Summit last month, UK was able to garner support from the European Union which joined the UK in condemning Russia over the Skripals poisoning and, as many as 15 European countries announced expulsion of Russia diplomats. Washington has also joined the rank and announced expulsion of as many as 60 Russian diplomats from the country and closure of Seattle embassy. Ukraine has also announced expulsion of 13 diplomats. Australia has also announced expulsion of 2 Russia diplomats. Russia responded in kind by expelling as many as 159 diplomats from the countries that have taken action.

UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson even went as far as to suggest that the upcoming Football World Cup is like Hitler’s Olympics. During his interview with a German news organization, he explained how he and his government was so sure of Russia’s involvement. During the interview, the reporter asked Mr. Johnson, “You argue that the source of this nerve agent, Novichok, is Russia. How did you manage to find it out so quickly? Does Britain possess samples of it?” to which Mr. Johnson replied, “Let me be clear with you … When I look at the evidence, I mean the people from Porton Down, the laboratory,” he replies before the presenter interjects “So they have the samples?” And Johnson replied, “They do. And they were absolutely categorical and I asked the guy myself, I said, "Are you sure?" And he said there's no doubt”.

It has now been revealed that Mr. Johnson was lying. On Tuesday, Gary Aitkenhead, chief executive of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down, told Sky News, "We were able to identify it as novichok, to identify that it was military-grade nerve agent….We have not identified the precise source, but we have provided the scientific info to government who have then used a number of other sources to piece together the conclusions you have come to…… We were able to identify it as novichok, to identify that it was military-grade nerve agent…….We have not identified the precise source, but we have provided the scientific info to government who have then used a number of other sources to piece together the conclusions you have come to……it is our job to provide the scientific evidence of what this particular nerve agent is, we identified that it is from this particular family [Novichok] and that it is a military grade, but it is not our job to say where it was manufactured."

This puts the UK government between a rock and hard place as Russia, along with other countries would certainly demand proof on how the UK government could identify the substance as Novichok so quickly and how it is sure that the source of the poison was Russia and why the UK’s foreign secretary was lying to put the blame on Russia.