Global Geopolitical Series: Today’s Tehran summit could seal fate of Idlib

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani is hosting a trilateral summit today in Tehran with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan which could seal the fate of Idlib, the last rebel-held province in Syria, which is reportedly home to millions of Syrian people. Over the past few weeks, the Syrian army, loyal to President Bashar al Assad has been preparing to attack the province. Russian air force has started bombing the rebel positions in Idlib, which sets the course for a full-fledged attack by the army.

U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in on the subject on Monday, when he warned Russia, Iran, and Syria against recklessly attacking the province as it might lead to numerous civilian casualties, “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province. The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!” He doubled down on his warning while speaking to reporters as he welcomed the Amir of Kuwait in the White House by saying that not only the United States but the entire world is closely watching whether the attack on Idlib turns out to be a civilian slaughter or not. He stressed that in such a case the United States would be very angry.

However, in parallel to the military preparations, the recent weeks have also seen diplomatic efforts to solve the issue. Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran have been engaging in a diplomatic process, better known as the Astana talks format to end the Syrian Civil war that is close to entering its 8th year.

Seized from government forces in 2015, Idlib and adjacent areas form the last major chunk of Syrian territory still in rebel hands. Turkey has limited sway over the terrorist groups that control an estimated 60 percent of Idlib but it backs militant groups there and has 12 military observation points across the province. Russia and Iran want Turkey to use its influence to lead to a peaceful surrender.