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Global geopolitical Series: Middle East and Latin America to be key focus in Trump’s remaining term

In the final two years of his Presidency, the U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration are preparing themselves to turn hawkish on foreign policies in the Middle East and Latin America. The timing couldn’t have been better.

Middle East:

In the Middle East, the main rival remains Iran, which incidentally is home to the world’s second-biggest natural gas reserve. As the U.S. production of natural gas continues to rise outpacing demand, soon the United States would be a dominant player in the global market and Iran’s own natural gas ambition is a hindrance, especially when U.S. companies are largely shut out of Iran.

But it’s not just oil and gas.

Iran remains the main promoter of anti-U.S. and anti-Saud policies and sentiment in the entire Middle East. Iran’s presence has never been felt more through the Middle East. Iranian backed Houthi rebels continue to oppose Saudi supported opposition in Yemen, Russia and Iran were main backers of President Bashar Al Assad, the only reason his regime survived despite U.S. opposition and rebel attacks. Iran is also an arch opponent of U.S. policies towards Israel and remains a heavy backer of Palestinian leaders. The sentiment has also been improving in the Middle East in favor of Iran and allies. Iran-backed Hezbollah came to power in Lebanon through election was another major setback for the U.S. in 2018.

Since coming to power in 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a particularly harsher stance compared to his predecessor by moving the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), better known as the Iran nuclear agreement and imposing sanctions on Iran. The deal was signed under President Barrack Obama between Iran and six world powers that provided sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for curtailing its nuclear ambition. However, the impact has not been as dire as it was back in 2011 when the U.S. sanctions had the backing of the EU, which completely choked out Iran’s oil exports as the country struggled to insure its oil ships. EU sanctions forced insurers to stay away from Iranian oil tankers. This time around, the EU wants to continue with the agreement along with other partners like Russia, China, and the United Kingdom.

What about the timing?

We would like to point to the coincidence of the United States declaring Iran’s revolutionary guards as a foreign terrorist organization earlier this week, about the same time as imposing penalties on $11 billion worth of European products to counter subsidies given to Airbus.

As the United States ready to wrap up an agreement with China on trade and intellectual properties, President Trump’s next focus would be the EU and tariffs on cars coming to the United States. What can be better than to time it all together - a war on EU’s trade surplus, EU’s support for Palestinians, and support for the JCPoA.

Here is the full statement from the U.S. declaring IRG a Foreign Terrorist organization (FTO),  https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-designation-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-foreign-terrorist-organization/  

Latin America:

Venezuela is the main focus of the United States in Latin America, which incidentally is home to the world's biggest proven oil reserves, much bigger than Saudi Arabia. During the Hugo Chavez era in Venezuela, the United States’ attempts to topple him failed due to his prudent socialist policies in the country during an era of higher oil price. U.S. corporations have been largely shut out of Venezuela due to Chavez’s opposition to relations with the U.S.. But his successor Nicolas Maduro’s mismanagement in the time of lower oil price has opened a window of opportunity to topple him banking on the current economic crisis in the country, replace him with more U.S. and oil privatization friendly leader like Mr. Guaido, who has been leading the opposition in Venezuela. The U.S. was the first country to recognize Mr. Juan Guaido as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.  

And the timing couldn’t have been better, as a pro-Nationalist newly elected Brazilian President stands ready to assist to topple Maduro. Brazil’s newly elected President Jair Bolsorano made no secret of the support during his visit to Washington. Speaking to Jovem Pan radio, he said instead of an outright invasion or interference, Brazil is working with the United States to create a rift within Nicolas Maduro’s military to loosen his tight grip on power.

However, American People’s desire to not to have wars and President Trump’s vow to not to drag the United States into another never-ending war are keeping military options at bay. That is why, the United States has adopted to other means to topple Maduro. Military options would remain largely out of scope at least until President Trump is elected again in 2020.

2019 has seen a significant increase in pressures on Venezuela by other means. U.S. sanctions have already chocked Venezuela’s oil production which according to OPEC has declined below a million barrels per day, a drop of more than 100 percent in the past couple of years. Even small measures are not being left out such as imposing sanctions to block Venezuela’s oil shipments to Cuba, cancelling major league baseball deal with Cuba.

As the United States tighten its screws, these two countries would significantly define the second half of President Trump’s Presidency.

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