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Gold surged above $3000 after weak US inflation data. It hit a fresh all-time high of $3004 and is currently trading around $2997.
In February 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) marked a modest increase of 0.2% month-on-month and pushed the year-over-year inflation rate to 2.8%, which was lower than the market expectation of 2.9%. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, marked an increase of 0.2% in February and provided a year-over-year gain of 3.1%, which was lower than the prediction as well. The shelter sector was the major contributor to the month's gain, with energy and food prices also increasing.
The February 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) was even with January, a sharp deceleration from January's 0.6% increase. The 3.2% PPI annualized rate was less than 3.7% last January. Besides food and energy, the core PPI dropped 0.1% during February, while the year-over-year gain declined to 3.4% from 3.8% in January. Energy prices declined 1.2%, and food prices, particularly chicken eggs, soared. All these figures show a likely easing of inflation pressures within the U.S., but ongoing trade tensions and tariff wars could still affect future inflation patterns
Rate Pause Expectations Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the Mar 19th 2025 meeting have decreased to 97% from 98% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2975 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2656/$2900/$2880/$2867/$2850/$2830/$2800/$2770/$2740. The near-term resistance is at $3005, with potential price targets at $3030/$3050.
It is good to buy on dips around $2950 with a stop-loss at $2920 for a target price of $3100.
