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Gold gained sharply and hits fresh all-time high on recession fear. It hits an high of $3397 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $3397.01.
Economic Indicators Fueling Gold's Ascent
In March 2025, U.S. housing starts sank 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.324 million units, down four months. The drop, paced by a 14.2% drop in single-family housing starts, fell short of market expectations. Regionally, the West and South dropped hard, while the Midwest climbed heavily. Building permits, however, edged up 1.6% with a boost from an increase in multi-family permits, while single-family permits declined. Housing starts fell as a result of slack demand caused by high prices, high mortgage rates, and ongoing policy uncertainty.
Manufacturing Contraction Adds to Economic Woes
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index during April 2025 reported a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity, falling to -26.4, the largest fall since April 2023. The most significant indicators of the survey reported broad weakening, with a sharp drop in new orders and reduced shipments. While the levels of employment remained stable, prices paid and prices received both still rose, as shown by persistent inflation pressures. The future expectations in firms remain subdued, which means cautious optimism about the expansion over the next six months.
Rate Cut Expectations on the Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of 25 bpbs rate cut in June 18th 2025 meeting have increased to 62.20% from 61.50% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short term moving average 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4 hour chart. Immediate support is at $3370 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3347/$3340/$3329/$3283. The near-term resistance is at $3400 with potential price targets at $3425/$3460/$3472/$3506.
It is good to buy on dips around $3250 with a stop-loss at $3230 for a target price of $3472.
