Gold Wobbles as Rate Hike Bets Fade: FOMC Minutes and Economic Data in Focus

Gold took support near 365- H MA and showed a nice pullback ahead of FOMC paring most of its gains as demand for safe-haven assets diminished. It hit an intraday high of $3334  and is currently trading around $3327.

FOMC and Economic Data Impact

The FOMC Minutes from the May 6–7, 2025 meeting, expected to be released today at 2:00 PM ET, will give thorough insights into the Federal Reserve's discussions on the U.S. economic outlook and possible interest rate changes, which market participants will carefully examine for clues about the Fed's views on inflation, growth, and future policy adjustments following their decision to hold rates stable, therefore maybe causing volatility across several asset classes as investors modify their projections.

U.S. Durable Goods in April 2025 Orders fell 6.3% month over month as a result of a dramatic decrease in orders for transportation equipment; the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May 2025 strongly recovered to 98.0 driven by better expectations amid easing trade conflicts, therefore suggesting a possible boost to consumer expenditure notwithstanding continuing worries over tariffs and inflation.

Shifting Rate Hike Expectations

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of  rate pause in June 18th 2025 meeting have increased to 97.90% from 94.60% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy

Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA above 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 1-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3285 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3264/$3230/$3200/$3165/$3135/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3330 with potential price targets at $3350/$3365/$3378/$3400/$3415/$3465/$3500.

It is good to sell on rallies around $3328-30 with a stop-loss at $3365 for a target price of $3200.