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Goldman Sachs projects the Federal Reserve will start monetary easing with three 25-basis-point interest rate reductions at the September, October and December 2025 meetings, a more aggressive prognosis than its previous single-cut estimate. With futures markets giving an 85–92% chance of a September move, this change mirrors softening labor market indicators and moderating inflation. Should forthcoming employment data reveal a more rapid increase in joblessness, Goldman Sachs says the Fed could even choose to reduce rates by 50 basis points in September.
This updated prediction fits peers like Wells Fargo and Citigroup, all of which have raised expectations for policy easing to start in September. Key causes of this dovish turn mentioned everywhere are lower job creation, increasing unemployment, and limited price pressures. Fed officials' recent remarks have also swung more toward caution, strengthening rate relief expectations.
Though Goldman Sachs warns that the Fed's final path will depend on approaching data—particularly employment and inflation statistics—many agree on impending cuts. A more ambitious easing cycle might be on the table should the economy deteriorate faster than expected; on the other hand, more robust data might put planned reductions on hold or postpone them.
