Greece capital controls likely to stay for a protracted period of time

Since the Euro Summit 13 July agreement, the ECB restarted the provision of additional liquidity via ELA. Given the limited amount of collateral buffer (€15bn), capital controls are likely to stay for a protracted period of time at least until depositors' confidence returns.

ECB could decide to reintroduce the waiver at its full discretion once deal is signed and meets credible implementation, and hence possibly buy GGBs in its PSPP after 20 Aug. 

"Banks will need fresh capital. Under BRRD, unsecured debt is at risk of being bailed in", says Barclays.

Some deposit haircuts cannot be ruled out. Euro Summit has foreseen recapitalisation needs between 10-25bn.