Hong Kong’s jobless rate likely rose further in November, inflation to have accelerated

Hong Kong’s labor market data is set to release tomorrow. According to a DBS Bank research report, the jobless rate is likely to have risen further in November to 3.3 percent from October’s 3.1 percent in the midst of external uncertainty and social unrest.

Among all, that of consumption and tourism related sectors are likely to have continued to see more marked deterioration. It has already risen to 5 percent in October from February’s 3.4 percent. Visitor arrivals fell 43.7 percent year-on-year in October. Hopefully, the temporary rental adjustments for tenants might contain the risks of large scale closure of businesses and lay-off.

Meanwhile, the headline inflation is likely to have accelerated to 3.3 percent in November from 3.1 percent in the prior month on rising import food price.

“Widespread swine fever ramped up China pork price by 110.2 percent while substitutes such as beef and mutton also correspondingly jumped 22.2 percent and 14.3 percent respectively. Risk of stagflation is rising down the road”, added DBS Bank.