How FOMC members may vote in upcoming policy?

FOMC board consists of permanent members, who votes every year and alternate members whose voting rights rotate. In the first group there are Chairperson Janet Yellen, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, New York FED president William Dudley, while the second group consists of members like Esther George, James Bullard.

Let’s evaluate on the basis of their views and comments, how each member may vote in upcoming FOMC meetings in April and in June.

Janet Yellen – FED Chair is a dove, probably most cautious better explains her. She is not in the team of the hawks preferring to hike rates in April. However she may vote for hike in June, depending on other members’ takeaway and incoming data.

Stanley Fischer – He is more of neutral, not too dovish and not much of a hawk. However recent commentaries surrounds some worries over inflation and Mr. Fischer expressed that large overshoot of unemployment rate may lead to undesirable rise in inflation. So, while he may wait out the April meeting, more likely to vote for a hike in June.

Lael Brainard – Ms. Brainard has steadily warned of the risks to inflation, which according to her lies to the downside. However even she has agreed that over the coming years, oil price and Dollar effect to stabilize. Definitely no voter in April, may not even vote to hike in June but that will depend more on incoming data.

James Bullard – A known hawk and very much likely to vote for April rise, sure to vote for hike in June.

Esther George – Dissented for hike in March. Will surely vote for a hike in April and June.

William Dudley – FED’s Vice Chair is a well-known dove and not at all likely to vote for a rise in April and even skip June, but that to depend on data.

Lorretta Mester – According to her FED shouldn’t wait too long to hike rates. May vote hike in April, definitely votes hike in June.

Daniel K. Tarullo – More leaned on the hawkish side, may skip April, likely to vote hike in June.

Jerome H Powell – A known hawk, likely to vote for a hike in April and definitely in June.

Eric Rosengren – Recently commented that market pricing of hikes are too dovish. Likely to vote for a rise in June but April.

So for April for hike- we have 3 yes vote, 5 no vote two not either side.

For June we are likely to have 7 yes vote, 1 no vote and two either side.

With this outlook we maintain our stance that FED will hike rates in June, despite market pricing in December.