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Consumer prices in the United Kingdom went up 0.5 pct year-on-year in June of 2016, accelerating from a 0.3 pct increase in the previous two months and higher than market expectations of a 0.4 pct gain.
The cost of housing and utilities increased for the first time in three months and recreation and culture recorded the biggest gain since October of 2014.
Sharp near-10% currency depreciation to push imported inflation up toward 6%. But gradual pass-through together with weaker domestic activity should limit the CPI inflation pickup.
Can inflation prevent BoE from easing?: We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.5%-3.0% by 2H17 which is not enough to prevent material policy easing by the BoE Sterling’s near-10% fall since the Brexit vote will lift inflation from here, but by how much?
We expect the CPI to rise above the BoE’s target and into the 2.5%-3.0% range by H2'2017, well above our pre-referendum forecast of 2%.
On the flip side, German zew economic sentiment indicator has produced the worse than the forecasted number, actual -6.8 versus 8.2, a sharp decrease from previous 19.2. German economic sentiment deteriorated to the lowest level since November 2012 in July, as the Brexit shock hit business confidence, industry data showed on Tuesday.
ECB should, however, signal that it will assess the impact of Brexit in September, setting up a policy move
Euro-area core inflation remains stuck below 1%
Irish GDP revised massively, overstating underlying trend. So how would be ECB’s tone in its next week’s monetary policy is the difficult puzzle to solve.
Euro against pounds manages to gain from the day lows of 0.8341 to the current 0.8392, trading up about 0.47% from the previous close.
But EURUSD slumped sharply from day highs of 1.1080 to the current 1.1027 levels, foreseeing more downside potential.
While the pound continued to show weakness on today despite official data showing a larger than expected increase in inflation and while markets waited for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to slash economic forecasts in the wake of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. GBPUSD dropped from day highs of 1.3273 to the current 1.3146 levels.
