Vietnam is projected to edge past Indonesia in GDP per capita in 2026, a shift in the International Monetary Fund’s outlook that contrasts with Indonesia’s much larger total economy.
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook estimates nominal GDP per capita at $5,259 in Vietnam and $5,153 in Indonesia for 2026. The IMF’s April outlook had Indonesia ahead for that year, VnExpress reported. The newer estimates also leave Vietnam ahead in 2027, at $5,659 per person against Indonesia’s $5,550.
The comparison measures output per person, not overall economic size. The IMF projects Indonesia’s 2026 GDP at $1.48 trillion, compared with $542 billion for Vietnam. VnExpress reported that Indonesia’s population is nearly three times Vietnam’s, which is just over 100 million. The projections would rank Vietnam fifth among ASEAN economies, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand, the outlet reported.
The IMF’s 2026 growth projections put Vietnam at 8.4% and Indonesia at 5.1%. The comparison extends earlier EconoTimes coverage of the 8.4% growth projection. VnExpress also reported that Vietnam’s economy expanded 9.95% in the third quarter, its quickest quarterly rate in four years.
Nikkei Asia linked Vietnam’s gains to its expanding semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, including Foxconn’s production growth and Samsung Electronics’ export manufacturing. Mai Fujita, who works as a senior research fellow with Japan’s Institute of Developing Economies, told Nikkei Asia that public investment is supporting growth. VnExpress reported that Vietnam has VND1.014 quadrillion, or $39.3 billion, in public investment planned for 2026, with roads, airports and other infrastructure projects under construction nationwide.
VnExpress reported that Vietnam is aiming for growth of at least 10% in 2026 and GDP per capita of about $8,500 by 2030. Fujita said longer-term progress also calls for developing human resources and technology alongside infrastructure investment.
