IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 14 July 2015

Rabobank notes:

Speculators increased their bearish bets against the EUR to 107,781 in the week ending 14 July after Greece reached a compromise with its creditors. With Greece's future in the Eurozone secured (assuming that Athens manages to fully implement a very ambitious package of structural reforms in exchange of a third bailout progamme), the focus is back on the monetary policy divergence. Last week President Draghi reiterated that the ECB remains committed to its fullscale QE. At the same time Fed Chair Yellen implied that a hike in September could be back on the table. Consequently, market participants may continue to rebuild their short EUR positions, which stood at a record high of 226,560 in March. This should leave the downside in EUR/USD vulnerable as reflected in our end-year forecast set at 1.06.  

While speculators are also short GBP, net positions at 24,199 are significantly lower than in case of the EUR as the BoE intends to tighten monetary policy with Governor Carney saying that "the point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer given the performance of the economy." Further fall in JPY shorts from 63,629 to the lowest since May 19 of 47,371 proved insufficient to prevent USD/JPY from rallying to 124+ from recent low at 120.41.  

As concerns about Greece eased markedly, the CHF lost its appeal with net long positions falling to just 3,081 - the least bullish since April 28.  

The rout in commodities continued to weigh on both AUD and CAD with short positions increasing sharply to 33,541 (from 22,197) and to 40,726 (from 32,268) respectively.