Smoke from Indonesia’s wildfires may interfere with oil palm pollination, adding a potential threat to future harvests after drought led the U.S. Department of Agriculture to lower its production outlook.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for Indonesia’s 2026-27 palm oil production by 2.2 million metric tons to 45 million metric tons, citing dry conditions in Sumatra and Kalimantan. The forecast revision reflects drought; any additional effect from smoke has yet to be measured.
Agus Eko Prasetyo, a crop protection researcher at the Indonesian Oil Palm Research Institute, told Bloomberg that the current haze may make pollinating insects less effective. Oil palms depend on weevils to move pollen between flowers so fruit can develop. Prasetyo said it was too early to assess the effect of this year’s smoke.
Research by the institute during the 2015 haze found fewer weevil visits to female flowers. That finding offers a precedent for disrupted pollination, though it does not show how much, if at all, the 2026 haze will affect harvests. Prasetyo also studied weevils during the earlier haze, Bloomberg reported.
Smoke and reduced sunlight can interfere with the insects’ activity, according to the institute’s assessment reported by Bloomberg. Less effective pollination can reduce the proportion of flowers that produce fruit. Researchers at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said poor pollination can also leave fruit underdeveloped and reduce the weight of harvested bunches.
The concern comes as satellite monitor Nusantara Atlas estimated that 1.9 million hectares burned across Indonesia from January through September. Bloomberg reported that Indonesia is directing more vegetable oil toward biofuels, leaving less available for food and other uses. Reduced supply could raise costs for consumers, the outlet said.
Prasetyo said oil palm fruit bunches take five to six months to mature. Any pollination loss from the current haze may therefore first become apparent in harvests around March or April 2027, he said.
